With the February 18th trade deadline just two weeks away, we should start to see some fast and furious movement from two types of teams: those who want to get one more piece for a playoff run, or those who want to clear up as much cap space as possible before the massive 2010 free agent class drops. Guess which category the Bulls fall into. Although some optimism seemed to be sprouting during the Bulls recent 5 game win streak, expectations have since fallen back to earth with another losing streak and the announcement that Joakim Noah is going on ice until after the All Star break. While it was fun to watch the Bulls make a little run and was a relief to see Derrick Rose start taking over games like he did, I think the last stretch of games has done far more to solidify the Bulls position than the winning streak did. It has reminded us that, despite flashes of brilliance from a promising young player, this is not a team that is going to win a championship this year. With that knowledge in mind, I think the Bulls have three options here at the trade deadline:
Option One – The Bulls take their tradable pieces and make a move for a player who can help them win right away. This likely means moving some combination of Kirk Hinrich, Tyrus Thomas, Brad Miller or John Salmons for a player like Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh or Tracy McGrady. This option is bad for the Bulls for two reasons. First off, while adding one of these players will certainly help the Bulls to a few more wins (with the possible exception of McGrady who may very well be done as an NBA player) it does not make them a title contender, which should be the point of a move of that magnitude. Secondly, it makes it much less likely that they will land one of the big fish from the 2010 free agency class. Your biggest asset in that race is going to be cap space and the Bulls are looking to have a ton of it at the end of this season. Brad Miller alone represents $12.2 million coming off of the books, which means that any team trading one of their star players to the Bulls is going to want that contract to come back to them. Unless a team is willing to trade one of those players without getting that cap relief in return, this option should be very unattractive to the Bulls.
Option Two – The Bulls do nothing at the trade deadline and ride out the season with their current roster. This is an option that seems reasonable because John Paxson/Gar Forman has shown a tendency to overvalue his young players and might think that this group is capable of going further into the playoffs this year than it really is. Plus, they retain those enviable expiring deals so they will find themselves with a respectable amount of cap space at the end of the year which might be enough to draw one (or possibly two) of those big free agents to your team. The risk that the Bulls run here is that they have some pieces that teams might trade for right now (like Hinrich or Thomas) but are unlikely to want at the end of the season. That means that they will be stuck with pieces that may not fit into their future plans as they go into the free agent market.

Option Three – The Bulls go all in. They trade good players with multi-year contacts (like Hinrich or Deng) for another team’s expiring deal. The most obvious (and most talked about) move here would be Hinrich, Thomas and Salmons to Boston for Ray Allen’s massive expiring deal (18.8 million) and ‘Big Baby’ Davis. This gives the Bulls a post presence to mix in with Noah and Brad Miller and gives them the perimeter threat they’ve been missing all year which will allow them to stay as competitive as they would have been without making the move. More importantly, it means that the Bulls would have almost $40 million in cap space open up going into the off season which is more than enough to entice two or even three major free agents here. We’re talking about the possibility of getting Bosh here along with Lebron James and Joe Johnson or James and Dewayne Wade. Just allow yourself to imagine that 2010 Bulls team for a moment. So what’s the risk here? Lebron stays in Cleveland, Wade stays in Miami, Johnson decides to sign somewhere that already has pieces in place and the Bulls have to start all over again from scratch. Ouch.
So which option do they choose? I think before February 18th, Gar Foreman and John Paxson are going to surprise us all and pull off option three, setting up what will be the most exciting offseason in a long, long time in Chicago. Well have to wait and see if it works out, but I think the possibility is just too good to pass up.










